Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Election Predictions 2008
Feel free to make you election predictions in the comments. What will be the electoral vote count? What will the popular vote percentages be? How many Senate or House pickups will there be? Any ballot proposition predictions?
CNN allows you to make your own map (some other sites freeze up).
Slate has spreadsheets you can use to track your picks as well for a weighted contest (extra points for picking battleground states correctly, etc.).
Five Thirty Eight's projections show the most common results are 311, 338, 378, 353, and 291 for Obama.
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has a very good piece in Newsweek on what to watch for in the election returns.
The yellow states on CNN's map plus Pennsylvania and Nevada are those that have or will likely see the most voter suppression or dirty tricks. Democracy Now and Brad Blog have more details.
The number of true battleground states varies from source to source, but we'll go with these 15 (the CNN map lists abbreviations if you need them):
Some people would add AR, ME and WV to that list. Add anything you like. In any case, feel free to make any predictions in the thread. Mine are in the comments below.
(I'll probably spend more time over at the Blue Herald version of this post, but feel free to leave comments here, if you prefer.)